My Book Pick: The Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Economy: The Great Collapse of Employment in 2030
Aichi Insurance Physicians’ Newspaper
June 5, 2017
Tomohiro Inoue
Bungeishunju Shinsho
July 21, 2016
It became a major topic of conversation when a leading professional Go player was defeated by an AI, but this is an equally startling book, with the provocative subtitle The Great Collapse of Employment in 2030. Its subject goes far beyond the digitization of medical information. The author introduces developments in Europe, the United States, and Japan aimed at using AI to transform production and labor. He explains the fundamentals of machine learning and the achievements of deep learning, as well as Japan’s “Whole Brain Architecture” project. He then examines the impact of AI on the economy, dividing the future into “the age of specialized AI” up to 2030 and “the age of artificial general intelligence” thereafter, and discusses how specialized AI will drive economic development while simultaneously taking away jobs. Linda Gratton’s The Shift: The Future of Work Is Already Here is far more persuasive, in my view, but Inoue also addresses what is being called the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
In the “age of artificial general intelligence” after 2030, the author argues that only three categories of human labor will survive: (1) creative work, (2) managerial work, and (3) hospitality and interpersonal services. Routine office work, such as accounting and finance, will become unnecessary, leaving only artists, managers, and people-oriented services such as medicine, education, and welfare. His provocative conclusion—that “all workers will starve to death, while the capitalist class will acquire everything and capitalism itself will disappear”—leaves enormous room for debate.
According to experts, AI may be useful for reaching consensus, but it has virtually no creativity of its own. This does not appear to be an argument for technological development based on the premise of humanity’s long-term sustainability. Can humanity truly put AI to work for the sake of human happiness? This is a book that should be read critically. It becomes even more interesting when read alongside Population and the Japanese Economy by Hiroshi Yoshikawa (Chuko Shinsho, 2016).
